BULLETIN:  GADAFFI REGIME CRUMBLING – AT 6:46 P.M. ET:   Reports are flying.  A number of sources, including the sometimes accurate BBC, say that Gadaffi has escaped to Algeria.  The rebels are claiming that his number one son, Saif al-Islam Gadhafi, the head of the army, has been captured.

There is fighting in Tripoli, the capital, but remarkably little resistance.  It does appear that the rebels may well be in practical control of the city, and much of the country, soon.

But serious questions remain.  CNN reports that many rebel units are not under a central command and refuse to join it.  There are profound questions as to who the rebels are, and who will actually control Libya once the regime is entirely out of the way.  Will democracy blossom?  Or will we have another Iran, where the lunatics take over?  Next door to Libya is Egypt, whose own revolution isn't going so well. 

So, the defeat of Gadaffi brings with it no guarantees.  We can, though, rejoice that a thug is gone.

There are political implications for President Obama.  If Gadaffi has indeed been toppled, he will take a bow, and may well deserve it.  He can argue that we got regime change without American troops on the ground, and contrast that with Iraq.  Of course, the situations are entirely different, but in politics many don't work the details.  Obama may well be seen as victorious. 

However, if the Libyan revolution turns sour, Obama might well then be faulted for naiveté, backing rebels who produced an even worse situation. 

As they say, the situation is fluid.  It changes by the hour.

August 21, 2011